Multiplication Statistics
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Note : The Following notes were initially included in the appendix of  Home Cell Explosion. However, the editor decided not to include them.  The Multiplication Questionnaire is provided in my book Home Cell Group Explosion, and the questionnaire also appears in my dissertation.

Appendix B  

Questionnaire: Cell Multiplication Factors  

The primary motivation for this questionnaire was to discover essential variables associated with cell group multiplication.  Because the questionnaire was administered specifically to cell leaders, most of the findings relate to leadership patterns.

Administration of the Questionnaire  

Before administering the questionnaires, I obtained permission from those in authority.  Normally, the cell leaders would fill out the questionnaires while I was present (e.g., in a cell leadership training meeting). [i] I tried to make the anonymity issue very clear to the respondents, telling them that there was no place for them to write their name.  I urged them to answer the questions as honestly as possible.  I tried to make the questionnaire clear and easy to follow, knowing the educational level of some of my respondents.  While they were filling out the questionnaires, I made myself available to answer their questions.  

Limitations of the Questionnaire  

I purposely tried to disguise the dependent variables (cell multiplication questions) by placing them at the end of the questionnaire and by not announcing the importance of these questions.  However, this proved to be a limitation for two reasons.  First, those respondents who took more time felt pressured at the end, due to lack of time, and thus some respondents skipped over the last questions. [ii] Another reason for the missing data was that these questions were harder and required more thinking, and thus some decided to leave them blank.  If I were to do it over again, I would explain these dependent variables more clearly and placed them near the beginning of the questionnaire.  

Description of the Questionnaire Respondents  

I received a total of 521 questionnaires that I was able to use in my analysis.  Table 7 gives some descriptive background of these leaders.  

Results of the Questionnaire  

The key questions (dependent variables) are questions twenty-seven (whether the group had multiplied), twenty-eight (length of time for a cell to multiply) and twenty-nine (number of times the cell had multiplied).  All of the other questions (independent variables) will be analyzed according to their correlation with these three questions.  I did not consider a correlation significant unless the probability level was .05 or lower.

TABLE 1 DESCRIPTIVE DATA FROM QUESTIONNAIRE  

COUNTRY RESPONSE

            Colombia-59

            Ecuador-125

            Per-54

            Honduras-72

            El Salvador-80

            Korea-55

            Singapore-76

GENDER

            51%  male (268)

            49%  female (253)

CIVIL STATUS

            50%  married

            43 %  single

SOCIAL CLASS

            10 %  identified themselves as poor

            31.% identified themselves as middle lower class

            50 % identified themselves as middle class

              9 % identified themselves as middle upper class

AGE

            33 years old (average age)

EDUCATION

            10%  elementary

            47%  high school

            30%  university

              7%  graduate level

LENGTH OF

TIME AS BELIEVER

              4 %  six months

              7 %  one year

            11%  two years

              9 %  three years

            70 %  over three years

DEVOTIONAL TIME

            42%  spent between one half hour and one hour in daily devotions

            14%  spent more than 1   hours in daily devotions

PRAYER FOR GROUP

            64%  prayed daily for their cell group

CONTACT

            23%  contacted members of their group eight or more times per month

ASSISTANTS

            21%  did not have an assistant

            35%  had one assistant

            29%  had three or more assistants

 

Question Twenty-seven: Whether the Group Had Multiplied  

This was a very straightforward question, Has your group multiplied yet?  There were only two responses, yes or no.  Out of the 521 respondents, 398 said yes (sixty-three percent), 193 said no (thirty-seven percent).

The next step was to try to determine the significant patterns related to those who said yes versus those who said no.  First, there was no significant relation between country, gender, social class, age, civil status, education, salvation, number of outside meetings, gifting, personality, or homogeneity and whether the leader had multiplied the cell group.

On the other hand, the statistics did show that there was significant correlation between cell multiplication and the number of assistants in the group, number of visitors in the group, and the cell leaders devotional life, prayer life, visitation, and goal orientation.  Table 8 outlines those relationships.  

TABLE 2 FACTORS CORRELATED WITH CELL MULTIPLICATION

 

ASSISTANTS

No. 8

More assistant leaders, higher rate of multiplication,
r = -.11, p< .036

DEVOTIONAL LIFE

No. 11

More devotional life, higher rate of multiplication,
r = -.16, p< .001

PRAYER

No. 12

More prayer, higher rate of multiplication,
r = .11, p< .019

LESSON PREPARATION

No. 13

More lesson preparation, higher rate of multiplication,
r = -.13, p< .009

CONTACTING MEMBERS

No. 14

More contact with members of cell group, higher rate of multiplication, r = -.13, p< .007

VISITATION OF NEW PEOPLE

No. 16

More visitation of new people, higher rate of multiplication,
r = -.19, p< .001

EXHORTATION TO INVITE PEOPLE

No. 17

More exhortation to invite new people, higher rate of multiplication, r = .16, p< .001

NEW VISITORS IN GROUP

No. 18

More new visitors in the group, higher rate of multiplication,
r = -.18, p< .001

MULTIPLICATION GOALS

No. 19

More clear multiplication goals, higher rate of multiplication,
r = .23, p< .001

     According to these findings, it is imperative that cell leaders prepare themselves spiritually and intellectually, engage in visitation, instill an outreach orientation in the group, and have specific goals for cell multiplication.  It is not possible to say that one of these aspects is more important than the other.  However, taken together, they provide the cell leader with needed information about how to successfully multiply the group.

 

Question Twenty-eight: Length of Time
to Multiply
 

    This correlation is based on question twenty-eight which asked the cell leaders how long it took to multiply their cell group.  There was a significant relationship between the length of multiplication time and the particular country, F (4,203) = 4.33, p< .0001.  For example, in Honduras it took an average of thirty-seven weeks to multiply the group (mean = 39.5 22.0), whereas in El Salvador it only took an average of twenty-one (mean = 22.4 26.5) and Colombia only took an average of sixteen weeks (mean = 18.1 18.3).  Table 37 adds clarity.

TABLE 3 CELL GROUP LENGTH AND MULTIPLICATION TIME

AVERAGE LENGTH OF CELL GROUP IN EACH COUNTRY

Ecuador

Colombia

Singapore

El Salvador

Per

Honduras

Korea

43 weeks

53 weeks

54 weeks

61 weeks

68 weeks

95 weeks

130 weeks

average length OF CELL GROUP AMONG ALL SEVEN COUNTRIES: 68 weeks (1 year and 3 months)

AVERAGE TIME

TO MULTIPLY CELL GROUP IN EACH COUNTRY

Colombia

El Salvador

Ecuador

Peru

Honduras

Singapore Korea

16 weeks

21 weeks

22 weeks

25 weeks

37 weeks

73 weeks

82 weeks

Average LENGTH OF TIME TO MULTIPLY CELL GROUP: 36 weeks (8 months)

 

    Just as important as what this question did say was what it did not say.  For example, the statistics showed no correlation between time that it took to multiply a group and gender, civil status, age, occupation, personality, or gifting.

    The statistics did indicate that educational levels were significantly related to multiplication length, F (4,199) = 3.03, p< .0187.  Among the Latin American churches, an elementary educated leader took forty weeks to multiply his group (mean = 40.3 43.8) versus twenty-two weeks for a high school educated leader (mean = 22.3 19.0).

    The study showed multiplication length was significantly related to the number of times the group met outside the normal cell meeting, F (4,197) = 3.58, p<.007.  Those leaders who did not meet with their group outside the regular meeting took significantly longer to multiply than those who gathered their group occasionally for outside activity.  It is interesting that Colombia rated significantly higher than any of the other countries with regard to number of outside meetings, F (4, 14.2) = 21.5, p< 0.000.

    Homogeneity was also significantly related to the time it took to multiply a cell group, F (4,162) = 7.67 p< .0001.  Those leaders who said that there was a medium level of homogeneity in the group (mean = 24.4 24.1) took significantly longer to multiply their group that those who indicated a high level (mean = 11.0 11.6).

    The study also indicated that newer Christians tended to multiply their groups faster than those who had been believers for a longer period, F (4,201) = 1.99, p< .094.  Those who were believers for more than three years (mean = 29.3   28.9) took an average of twenty-nine weeks to multiply the group versus those who were believers six months (mean = 5.8 2.8) and took an average of only six weeks.

TABLE 4 FACTORS CORRELATED WITH MULTIPLICATION FREQUENCY

 

ASSISTANTS

No. 8

More assistants, higher the frequency of multiplication,
r = .28, p< .001

TRAINING

No. 10

More knowledge/training, higher the frequency of multiplication,
r = .21, p< .001.

DEVOTIONAL LIFE

No. 11

More time spent by a leader in devotions, higher the frequency of multiplication, r = .25, p< .001.

LESSON PREPARATION

No. 13

More time spent in lesson preparation, higher the frequency of multiplication, r = .11, p< ..038.

CONTACTING MEMBERS

No. 14

More times the leader contacted the members of the group, higher the frequency of multiplication, r = .21, p< .001.

OUTSIDE MEETINGS

No. 15

More times that the leader met with the group outside the regular cell meeting, higher the frequency of multiplication,
r = .17, p< .001.

VISITATION OF NEW PEOPLE

No. 16

More that the cell leader visited new people, higher the frequency of multiplication, r = .24, p< .001.

EXHORTATION TO INVITE PEOPLE

No. 17

More the leaders exhorted the group to invite new people, higher the frequency of multiplication, r = -.14, p < .007.

NEW VISITORS IN GROUP

No. 18

More visitors in the cell group, higher the frequency of multiplication,
r = .21, p< .000.

MULTIPLICATION GOALS

No. 19

More clarity about multiplication goal, higher the frequency of multiplication, r = .-17, p< .001.

 

Question Twenty-nine: Number of Times That Group Multiplied  

    Question twenty-nine asked the cell leaders how many times that they had multiplied their group since becoming the leader.  Thirty-five percent (172) said that they had not multiplied their group, twenty-eight percent indicated that the group had multiplied one time (137), fourteen percent indicated they had multiplied two times (sixty-seven), eleven percent indicated that had multiplied three times (fifty-four), while twelve percent (fifty-nine) said that their group had multiplied four or more times.  This question is important because it goes beyond whether or not the group had multiplied to determine what factors were significant for those leaders who continually multiplied their group.  Table 38 highlights these multiplication factors.

The correlations coincide exactly with what was discovered under question twenty-seven in the following areas: number of assistants, training, devotional life, lesson preparation, contacting members and newcomers, exhorting group to invite friends, number of visitors in the cell group, and goals for cell multiplication.  This question did show a positive correlation between salvation and cell multiplication and the number of outside meetings and cell multiplication while question twenty-seven did not.  

Conclusion

     This statistical study has demonstrated a consistent statistical relationship between a cell leaders success in multiplying his or her group and the time spent in training, devotions, preparation, and visitation (members and newcomers).  It also clearly showed that the number of assistants, the goal orientation of the leader, and the number of visitors that the leader is able to attract to his cell group, all play a significant role in whether or not that leader will successfully multiply the group.


APPENDIX C

ORGANIZING THE DATA INTO CATEGORIES

The following statistical comments are based on 521 questionnaires quite equally divided among the seven churches:

Colombia

59 ( 11.3%)

Ecuador

125 ( 24.0%)

Peru

54 ( 10.4%)

Honduras

72 ( 13.8%)

El Salvador

80 ( 15.4%)

Korea

55 ( 10.6%)

Singapore

76 ( 14.6%)

RELAX YOU DONT NEED TO BE A SUPERSTAR

Social Standing

      There was no correlation between gender, social class, age, civil status, or education. You dont have to be someone that youre not.

Personality

      Nor did a particular personality type help a leader multiply his or her group. Introverted as well as extroverted leaders multiplied their cell groups.

Leadership Giftedness

      This finding was the most surprising to me. Many, including David Yonggi Cho, teach that only leaders with the gift of evangelism are able to multiply cell groups. In my study, I found that there was no correlation between cell multiplication and spiritual gifts. Those with the gift of teaching, pastoring, mercy, leadership, and evangelism equally multiplied their cell group.

THE LEADER'S IMPACT

The Devotional Life

      The statistics pointed to a direct correlation between time spent in devotions and cell multiplication. Those who spent 1 hours or more in devotions multiplied their groups twice as much as those who spent less than hour. As time with the Lord increased, so did the leaders capacity to multiply his or her cell.

Goal Orientation

        If you fail to set goals that your members clearly remember, you have little more than a  50-50 chance of multiplying your cell. But if you do set goals, you chance of multiplying increases to three out of four.

        Cell leader who knew when their groups would give birth consistently multiplied their group more often than goal-less leaders.

 Training  

      When the cell leader felt better trained than the average cell member the group multiplied more rapidly. However, when compared with the leaders devotional life and goal orientation, this point was not as important.

 Preparation

        Statistics seemed to show its more important to prepare the heart through prayer and time with God than to prepare the lesson.  

HIERARCHICAL ANALYSIS FOR LEADERSHIP PREPARATION

v     Important: When analyzing the following sequential or hierarchical analysis, it's important to remember that all of the variables showed significance in and of themselves.  But when compared to each other, some lose statistical significance.  

#27 Multiplied Yet?

                        Effect size                                  Significance

Devotions  e =      . 15     .02     1c    11.53c      < .005

Goals  e =              . 20    .04     2c     21.72c      < .0005

Training  e =          .04    .00     1c     .70c           n. s.

Preparation  e =     .02    .00     1c     .28c           n. s.

        It seems that clear-cut goals helped a leader multiply his or her group. However, regular devotional time was a close second.  

#29 Number of times multiplied?

                     Effect size                                     Significance

Goals  R =         .18    31.36     2   15.68     9.16    < .0005

Devotions  r =    .21    42.14     1   42.14    24.61  < .0001

Training  r =       .08     5.53     1    5.53     3.23       .07

Preparation r =   .00      .00     1     .00      .00           n. s.

        Again, devotions and goals are more important than training or preparation. Effective cell leadership is more of a Spirit-led adventure than a Bible study attitude.  

REACHING OUT

Visitation of New People

      There was a direct correlation between how often the cell leader contacted new people and his or her success in multiplying the group. If the leader contacted 5-7 new people per month there was an 80% chance that he or she would multiply the cell group. When the leader only visited 1 to 3 people per month the chances dropped to 60%.  

      Those leaders who visited 8 or more new people per month multiplied their group twice as much as those who visited 1 or 2 new people.  

Exhortation In Cell Group To Invite Friends  

      Those leaders who consistently encouraged cell members to bring friends multiplied their groups significantly more than those leaders who only occasionally did so.  

      Those cell leaders who weekly encouraged the cell members to invite visitors multiplied their group twice as much as those who did so occasionally or not at all.  

Growing Cell Groups Consistently Receive Visitors  

      I discovered that there is a direct relationship between number of visitors in the group and the number of times a leader was able to multiply his or her group.  

HIERARCHICAL ANALYSIS FOR REACHING NEW PEOPLE, EXHORTATION, AND VISITORS  

Question 27--Multiplication Yet

                             Effect Size                              Significance

Visit New Ones  E =  .21    .04     1c   22.13c  < .0001

Exhortation        E =  .21     .04     1c   22.12c  < .0001

Visitors              E = .06      .00     1c    1.91c         .16

        Visitation and exhortation are equally important in the multiplication process. Interestingly enough, it seems that the flow of visitors is secondary. Perhaps this tells us that just having visitors in the cell doesn't guarantee that theyll come back. The way the cell leader cares for the group tells more about visitor retention.

 

Question 29--Number Of Times Multiplied

                               Effect Size                                     Significance

Visit New Ones  R =    .26    65.06     1   65.06    38.99  < .0001

Exhortation  R =         -.17    28.41     1   28.41    17.02  < .0005

Visitors  R =                 .07    4.68     1    4.68     2.80          .09

        Visiting new people come out on top in this hierarchical analysis, but mobilizing the cell members to invite their friends is a close second.  

REACHING IN  

Prayer for Group Members  

      The statistics showed that those cell leaders who prayed daily for their cell members were more likely to multiply the cell groups than those who only prayed once in a while.  

Outside Meetings  

      Those who had 6 or more social meetings per month multiplied their group twice as much as those who did not have social meetings or those who might have only had one social meeting per month.  

Assistants/interns  In Group

      Those who managed to gather a team together doubled their capacity to multiply the cell group  

Pastoring Those In The Group  

      My study discovered that regular visitation of those within the group help consolidate the group and thus prepare the group to give birth. But as we'll see, in a comparative sense, there are other more important factors to consider.   

HIERARCHICAL ANALYSIS BETWEEN CONTACTING, PRAYER, AND SOCIAL MEETINGS  

Question 27--Multiplication Yet

                             Effect Size                              Significance

Assistants              E = .12    .02     1c    7.86c       < .01

Socialmeeting       E = .05    .00     1c    1.56c            .2

Contacting            E = .05    .00     1c    1.51c            .2

Prayer                   E = .20    .04     1c   20.50c       < .0001

        The data indicates that prayer for group member is the most important work of the cell leader in unifying and strengthening the quality of his or her group. Building a team is a close second.  

Question 29--Number Of Times Multiplied

 

                               Effect Size                                       Significance

Assistants              R =.21    40.41     1   40.41    23.87   < .0001

Prayer                   R =-.13    17.16     1   17.16    10.14  < .005

Socialmeeting       R =.16    25.58     1   25.58    15.11    < .0005

Contacting            R = .07     4.21     1    4.21     2.48          .11

        Those leaders who multiplied their groups built a leadership team, established a strong social atmosphere in the group, and prayed for cell members consistently. Regular visitation of each cell members doesnt seem to be as important.  

HIERARHICAL FOR ALL SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES

#27--MULTIPLICATION YET?

Prayer  e = .18    .03     1c   16.51c  < .0005

*Not exhortation  e = .15    .02     1c   11.81c  < .005

Goals  e = .14    .02     2c    9.69c  < .01

*visit new ones  e = .13    .02     1c    9.01c  < .005

*Assistants  e = .12    .02     1c    7.86c  < .01

*Devotions  e = .12    .01     1c    6.99c  < .01

Training  e = .08    .01     1c    3.27c   .07

Preparation  e = .06    .00     1c    1.86c   .2

Visitors  e = .05    .00     1c    1.36c   .2

Contacting  e = .01    .00     1c     .08c  n. s.

socialmeeting  e = .01    .00     1c     .10c  n. s.

 #29 MULTIPLICATION TIMES

*Assistants  r = .21    40.41     1   40.41    25.69  < .0001

*Devotions  r = .18    32.66     1   32.66    20.76  < .0001

*visit new ones  r = .15    22.73     1   22.73    14.45  < .0005

Training  r = .13    15.44     1   15.44     9.82  < .005

socialmeeting  r = .13    15.71     1   15.71     9.99  < .005

*Not exhortation  r =-.12    14.41     1   14.41     9.16  < .005

Prayer  r =-.08     5.95     1    5.95     3.78   .05

Goals  R = .09     7.48     2    3.74     2.38   .09

Preparation  r = .03      .62     1     .62      .40   n. s.

Contacting  r = .06     3.36     1    3.36     2.14   .14

Visitors  r = .05     2.76     1    2.76     1.75   .2

        I gather from the analysis that essential features of multiplying groups are leadership devotions (chapter 2), leadership outreach (chapter 3), group outreach (chapter 3), and building a team (chapter 4).

        Praying for team members and setting goals are essential in order to multiply the cell at least once, but they don't necessarily help a leader to multiply his or her group several times

 Leadership Training and holding social meetings are necessary for continuous multiplication.


[i] The exception was Per, where the head pastor distributed the questionnaires to those cell leaders who were present at one of the Sunday morning worship services.

[ii] Three hundred thirteen people (seventy-three percent) filled out question twenty-five (length of cell) and 111 did not; 397 people (ninety-three percent) responded to question twenty-seven (multiplication-yes/no) and twenty-seven did not; 336 people (seventy-nine percent) responded to question twenty-eight (length of time for group multiplication) and eighty-eight did not; 356 people (eighty-four percent) responded to question twenty-nine (number of times of multiplication) while sixty-eight did not.